Viewpoints from Manulife Investment Management
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Q4 2022 Global Macro Outlook
Rising inflation, enduring supply chain disruptions, and rising uncertainty—hardly a strong start to 2022; however, our macroeconomic strategy team believes that global growth prospects will become brighter as the year progresses.
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The high-yield market isn't signaling a recession
Through the interest-rate volatility and higher inflation so far in 2022, we haven't seen a reason to abandon high yield. If anything, the higher-quality segment of this market could provide a welcome boost to a portfolio's risk-adjusted return potential.
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Trigger rates: an upcoming risk to the Canadian housing market
Rising interest rates are putting a damper on the Canadian housing market as mortgages become more expensive for potential buyers. But there's more to watch: Trigger rates in variable rate mortgages may add to housing woes. Might this be a cause for concern in the Canadian economy?
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U.S. banks’ fundamentals continue to strengthen despite the economic slowdown
The latest quarterly earnings reports from U.S. regional banks confirm the favorable investment outlook as loan growth and an improved interest-rate environment provide a tailwind for the industry.
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The Fed remains hawkish, but easing could occur in 2023
The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates by 0.75% shouldn't surprise anyone—it was widely expected; however, the bank's latest economic projections caught markets off guard. Read more.
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Das economy: Three-minute macro
With a full-blown energy crisis, the outlook for Europe’s largest economy is dire, with many headwinds to face. Meanwhile, investors might not know it, but ESG factors are having major impacts on the global economy.
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Time to deliver: Three-minute macro
Delivery times for products are improving, which should help ease inflation pressures. But a hawkish Bank of Canada has us keeping an eye on the housing market, while we think the European equity market is underpricing risk there.
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Under pressure: Three-minute macro
This month, we note that the equity risk premium isn’t indicating a growth slowdown in the near future (despite our views to the contrary), while also cautioning that fewer people may be heading back to the office than we suspect many are hoping for. Finally, we look at how the Federal Reserves aggressive policy trajectory might affect Asia.
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Rising rates and real estate: Three-minute macro
A hawkish BoC should have Canadian homeowners on watch as interest-rate rises will likely eat into their purchasing power. We also break down why green energy stocks are underperforming this year and why stagflation is such a scary word.
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Show them the money: Three-minute macro
Corporate profits are surging, but workers aren’t really sharing in this profit boom—and that’s made even worse by rising prices. Our eyes are also on inventory levels that are building, and which could be a danger in the wake of rising interest rates.
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