Viewpoints about Market outlook
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Five Macroeconomic Themes For 2024
A new economy rising: we dive into the five major forces that will drive global economies and markets in 2024. Come back to this page for updates, insight, and resources to help guide you throughout the year.
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What’s likely in store for markets in 2024?
The start of a new year typically brings about new hopes, new goals, and—If you’re an investor—new questions about the global economy in next 12 months. Our Capital Market Strategy Team addresses the most frequently asked questions that have been posed to them about the coming year.
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Rethinking the macroeconomic outlook
Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management’s Global Chief Economist and Strategist shares her views on what we might expect in the months ahead.
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Global economy: recession postponed, not canceled
The unexpected strength in the global economy—particularly in the United States—might have brought investors initial relief, but we believe it isn't enough to delay the inevitable. Find out why.
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Known unknowns: Three-minute macro
We're in an environment ripe with significant uncertainties that reduce visibility and make it difficult to have high conviction. Banking fragilities continue and the debt ceiling drama will be harmful to growth, no matter how it resolves. Meanwhile, we’re keeping an eye on European equities, which we think are losing their shine.
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Bank failures—unexpected events make investment decisions difficult
Events like the U.S. and European bank failures raise a key question. What should investors do during volatile times like these? Looking back at the last few years might give us an idea about how to discuss this with investors who may be uneasy or fearful.
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Is the Fed as dovish as the market thinks it is?
Concerns about the strength of the global financial system have led to a significant shift in market expectations of when the U.S. Federal Reserve might start lowering interest rates. Has the market been too optimistic?
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Goodbye, negative-yielding debt: Three-minute macro
The era of negative-yielding debt is over, but we’re more focused on how debt issuance and rising rates will increase government debt burdens (and what that means for investors). Our eyes are also on Europe, where we’re cautiously optimistic in the short term. Finally, we’ve got some good news for bond investors.
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2023 Q1 Global Macro Outlook—The Year Ahead
We expect 2023 to be a year of two halves: H1 could be defined by a material slowdown in growth as the effects of aggressive monetary tightening kick in, while H2 could see an easing in macroeconomic conditions. Read our economic growth forecast for 2023.
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The tailwinds of change: Three-minute macro
Inflation is showing signs of moderating, and if history is any indication, that could be a tailwind for equities. We’ve also got eyes on the timeline for a reopening in China, and on Americans’ excess savings, which aren’t excess for everyone.
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