Viewpoints about United States
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Data, data, everywhere: Three-minute macro
Data is our word of the month. Despite some surprising signs of economic resilience in the United States, our leading indicators still have us convinced a recession is on the way. Meanwhile, we don’t think the strong unemployment rate is a perfectly accurate description of the current (and future) labor market. Finally, the S&P 500 Index is looking strong so far this year, but we dive into how much of that performance is due to the AI craze.
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Beyond the Fed’s hawkish “pause”: three macro elements to consider
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady at its June meeting. But looking deeper, there are implications for investors.
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Known unknowns: Three-minute macro
We're in an environment ripe with significant uncertainties that reduce visibility and make it difficult to have high conviction. Banking fragilities continue and the debt ceiling drama will be harmful to growth, no matter how it resolves. Meanwhile, we’re keeping an eye on European equities, which we think are losing their shine.
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Q1 2023 in review
Manulife Private Wealth reviews how Canadian and U.S. stocks, global equities, and global bond markets performed in Q1 2023.
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Bank failures—unexpected events make investment decisions difficult
Events like the U.S. and European bank failures raise a key question. What should investors do during volatile times like these? Looking back at the last few years might give us an idea about how to discuss this with investors who may be uneasy or fearful.
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The bar to stop hiking is probably lower than the bar to cut rates
Concerns about financial stability may not have stopped the Fed from raising rates; however, there's a growing sense that we're now closer to—if not already at—the end of the U.S. rate-hike cycle.
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Regional bank failures create potential risks and opportunities for investors
The failure of several banking entities in just a few days has spurred extraordinary measures from U.S. regulators, but investors remain skittish. Read more on how these events shape our outlook for the banking industry.
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Three questions for the Fed in the lead-up to its March meeting
Fears that financial stress in the system could morph into a banking crisis have sparked speculation that the Fed might make a dovish pivot at its March meeting. We take a closer look.
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Q4 2022 in review
The Canadian and U.S. stock market rallied in the fourth quarter. Global equities and bond markets also advanced adding a positive note to a historically severe downturn in 2022.
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The tailwinds of change: Three-minute macro
Inflation is showing signs of moderating, and if history is any indication, that could be a tailwind for equities. We’ve also got eyes on the timeline for a reopening in China, and on Americans’ excess savings, which aren’t excess for everyone.
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