Market update
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Data, data, everywhere: Three-minute macro
Data is our word of the month. Despite some surprising signs of economic resilience in the United States, our leading indicators still have us convinced a recession is on the way. Meanwhile, we don’t think the strong unemployment rate is a perfectly accurate description of the current (and future) labor market. Finally, the S&P 500 Index is looking strong so far this year, but we dive into how much of that performance is due to the AI craze.
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Global economy: recession postponed, not canceled
The unexpected strength in the global economy—particularly in the United States—might have brought investors initial relief, but we believe it isn't enough to delay the inevitable. Find out why.
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Five factors influencing the effectiveness of a 60/40 portfolio
We take a look at 5 macroeconomic factors that may influence the effectiveness of a 60/40 investing approach.
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Beyond the Fed’s hawkish “pause”: three macro elements to consider
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates steady at its June meeting. But looking deeper, there are implications for investors.
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The Bank of Canada “unpauses”—what’s next?
After just a brief moment on the sidelines, the Bank of Canada has announced yet another 25-basis point rate hike. Our experts offer their take on what this means for the economy. Read more.
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Known unknowns: Three-minute macro
We're in an environment ripe with significant uncertainties that reduce visibility and make it difficult to have high conviction. Banking fragilities continue and the debt ceiling drama will be harmful to growth, no matter how it resolves. Meanwhile, we’re keeping an eye on European equities, which we think are losing their shine.
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Bank on it: the state of Canadian financial institutions in the wake of bank failures abroad
The financial community was rocked by a string of bank failures in March. The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the United States could have been seen as isolated events, given their significant ties to the tech community that had seen a major downturn in recent months. But investors were rattled even further when Credit Suisse, one of the 30 global systemically important banks, was acquired by rival UBS to prevent the former’s collapse, followed weeks later by the collapse of First Republic Bank, which became the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. The banking community was put on notice, including in Canada, where banks play a huge role in our economy.
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Q1 2023 in review
Manulife Private Wealth reviews how Canadian and U.S. stocks, global equities, and global bond markets performed in Q1 2023.
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The signals and the noise: Three-minute macro
With such a strong job market, how can a recession possibly be in the works? Our answer lies in some troubling leading indicators for growth. At the same time, we think oil’s importance in inflation means some reprieve for the Consumer Price Index in the future. Finally, we note that central banks’ bias toward rate hikes may mean more cuts down the road.
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Bank failures—unexpected events make investment decisions difficult
Events like the U.S. and European bank failures raise a key question. What should investors do during volatile times like these? Looking back at the last few years might give us an idea about how to discuss this with investors who may be uneasy or fearful.
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