Market update
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How emerging-market equities’ rebound rally could extend throughout 2023
The emerging-market equity outlook has brightened after a challenging 2022. We explore the improving prospects in Mainland China, the information technology sector, and more.
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Goodbye, negative-yielding debt: Three-minute macro
The era of negative-yielding debt is over, but we’re more focused on how debt issuance and rising rates will increase government debt burdens (and what that means for investors). Our eyes are also on Europe, where we’re cautiously optimistic in the short term. Finally, we’ve got some good news for bond investors.
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2023 Q1 Global Macro Outlook—The Year Ahead
We expect 2023 to be a year of two halves: H1 could be defined by a material slowdown in growth as the effects of aggressive monetary tightening kick in, while H2 could see an easing in macroeconomic conditions. Read our economic growth forecast for 2023.
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The tailwinds of change: Three-minute macro
Inflation is showing signs of moderating, and if history is any indication, that could be a tailwind for equities. We’ve also got eyes on the timeline for a reopening in China, and on Americans’ excess savings, which aren’t excess for everyone.
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Don't be so negative: Three-minute macro
Earnings estimates have started to decline, but some sectors are doing far better than others. We also take a look at European trade dependence and how different commodities might perform in a slowing economy.
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What does a strong dollar mean for global growth?
As the world's dominant reserve currency, movements in the U.S. dollar can have important implications for the world economy. Our experts identify three channels through which dollar strength can shape growth. Learn more.
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Food scarcity, energy insecurity: assessing sovereign ESG risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
The central crisis of 2022 may not be found in inflation or interest rates, but in the conflict in Ukraine. We explore the commodity market impact and how this may up the ante on geopolitical and sovereign risks.
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Corrections are normal? Yes, they are.
Why invest in the equity markets? Day-to-day volatility can be unsettling to watch. Corrections happen, but they don’t last forever. This short video gives you an overview of corrections in equity markets, and compares the upturns to the downturns.
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Service, please! Three-minute macro
Inflation continues to be stubborn, but now we’re focused more on the services component, which is causing the bulk of the pain. Meanwhile, with volatility pretty much everywhere, investors find themselves without many assets to turn to because of rising asset class correlations. Finally, we take a look at the potential of the Brazilian equity market, which looks cheap.
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Q4 2022 Global Macro Outlook
Rising inflation, enduring supply chain disruptions, and rising uncertainty—hardly a strong start to 2022; however, our macroeconomic strategy team believes that global growth prospects will become brighter as the year progresses.
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